Safari Needs Competition

I just ran into one of my wife’s cousins at the supermarket. He told me he’s running for local state assemblyman this coming election. I asked him whether he thought he had a chance of winning. He told me it’s not so much about winning but about showing the current assemblyman that their is competition out there.

This comment resonated with me this morning as I came home and read about how Apple is not allowing Opera, a web browser, into the iPhone Application Store. Reasons being, it’s a competitor to Safari, Apple’s browser already included on each iPhone.

I can’t blame Apple for this decision…or can I? The iPhone is a locked operating system and anything that might potentially hurt Apple’s bottom line or existing relationships with partners is not allowed into the iPhone. But I think it’s a bad move on their part. The appeal of Android, Google’s mobile operating system, is that Google’s interest closely reflects the consumers. The consumer wants the entire web on their phone. Google wants the same. Apple wants to give you enough internet to make you happy so you’ll buy their product. At least that’s my opinion. And it seems, I’m right.

What should Apple do? They should manage the iPhone OS like they do their desktop OS. Anything that isn’t a virus or malicious program should be let in. No one can compete with the Apple’s UI design. They’re the best at it. But I could see myself, and many others, jumping the iPhone boat in a couple years if Apple doesn’t open up their system. Android will keep on  innovating based on the achievements of external programmers. How can Apple keep up if they don’t open the floodgates as well?

UPDATE: It seems that the initial story about Opera in the App store may be incorrect. John Gruber has a more in-depth look at the initial rumors. Thanks for the update Ricki.

Prediction: Good iPhone Apps Will Be Free and Apple Will Develop Ad Network

As I wait for my iPhone order to be filled (my local AT&T store says it will be anywhere from 10 to 21 days), I am researching the large number of iPhone apps I will have access to very soon. I’ve noticed that there seems to be many quality apps that cost money but also many quality apps that are free. What is the future of iPhone apps?

I’ll tell you. All the good iPhone apps will eventually be free. Furthermore (you heard it here first people), Apple is going to develop an iPhone ad network. I know what you’re thinking. I’m crazy. Why would Apple, a company that specializes in hardware and software, dive into the crowded advertising network market? Let’s discuss it further.

Good iPhone Apps Will Be Free

The real useful iPhone apps are ones that connect us with the rest of the world. While Super Monkey Ball might be fun, it’s just a game. Games get old fast. The best apps are the ones that connect us with our already existing web applications (like Pandora, Facebook, and AIM). Almost all, if not all, of these applications are free. That’s because these apps aren’t there to make money. They’re there to build the user base for those companies. The only monetizing that might come from these apps is advertising based.

So while in the present time you have every amateur entrepreneur trying to scrape some extra dollars from the iPhone folk, the public will get smart and stop paying for most of those apps after a while. And unless it’s a revolutionary app, some developer will code up a duplicate on a sleepless weekend and give it away for free. So let’s go to the next point.

Apple will develop an iPhone ad network

Thousands of apps have been downloaded from the app store. Many of them were paid for. The app store is a very large potential revenue stream for Apple. The problem is that most of the apps will be free (see above). That means there won’t be another money tree in the Apple garden…or will there? As more apps become free and lean towards advertising for revenue, Apple will get jealous. And you will eventually see the Apple iPhone Advertising Network.

This network will allow application developers to focus on building great applications and receive revenue from ads on the top or bottom of the screen as their app is displayed. Apple will take a cut from this revenue. Whether Apple teams up with an advertising leader for this (Google most likely) or build it on their own from scratch, you will see an Apple advertising network in the next 12-18 months. Just watch.

Apple in Control

I’ve gotten a lot of flack for my recent “iphone bashing” post. Opposed to what people thought I was saying, I was not bashing the iPhone at all. It is, by far, the best user experience for any mobile user. But my belief that Apple won’t take over the mobile world (specifically in the business sector) still stands. And to prove my point, check out this post by Erik Schonfeld over at Techcrunch.

Just yesterday, Michael Arrington at Techcrunch used a picture of a nuclear blast to infer that all Apple rivals in the mobile world will be obliterated. Only one day later, Erik Schonfeld explains that Apple is in control on whether Flash will be available on the iPhone. Why wouldn’t Apple allow Flash for the iPhone? It’s the same reason why you can’t install any app on your phone and must go through iTunes. Apple wants control. Everything has to meet up to their standards. This limits innovation and opens doors for competitors in the future. The iPhone is awesome but it’s not the best phone it could be. And if Apple doesn’t ease up, we’re going to see much better devices out in the wild in a few years.

Business Week and Michael Arrington are Wrong

Business Week and Michael Arrington have both predicted that any company competing in the smart phone market is in a lot of trouble this coming year. With the latest version of the iPhone coming out in July, both BW and Arrington think that Apple will dominate the space like they dominate the MP3 player industry with the iPod. I expect this from Business Week, whose analysis of the situation is based on Apple’s previous ability to come out with a revolutionary device and dominate the market. But I expect more foresight from Michael Arrington.

In the short term, yes, Apple will sell lots of iPhones. And yes, I will (eventually) be one of those buyers. But both BW and Arrington are missing the bigger picture. Apple’ s significant  achievement with the iPhone is the standards of services that users will expect from their smart phones. People want to organize their voicemail the way they see fit. People want to be able to install applications that others create for free. People want an easy way to see the web the way it was meant to be seen. These are all standards that other companies will adopt. With Google Android’s entrance into the marketplace, we’re going to see a lot of competitors to the iPhone in the next few years. All of which will provide those same high level of standards.

So let’s look 5 years down the line. Here are the potential options for businesses thinking about implementing a new smart phone service for all their employees:

Option A: Apple iPhone
Pros: It’s SO cool. The UI is gorgeous! I’ll be the cool one on the block. Web pages look great and the lack of keyboard is only annoying if I email a lot.

Cons: No QWERTY keyboard. It’s not focused solely on business.

Option B: RIM Blackberry
Pros: Device made just for business. Possibly cheaper than iPhone. Already have existing relationship with company. It’s got a QWERTY keyboard!

Cons: Not as cool as the iPhone. Web pages are viewed in mobile format.

Option C: Handset device with Google Android installed
Pros: Open system that allows companies to install company-related apps easily. Has many options for handsets depending on the user’s preference. Users can easily view web pages. Because of the many handset options, probably cheaper than the iPhone and Blackberry.

Cons: Handset and OS is coming from different companies. Not sure about others, but there will be a bunch.

With all these options, I think most businesses will go with B or C. The iPhone will be huge with consumers but Apple is going to have A LOT of competition in the business sector.

Stop Complaining about Gas

Yes. We all agree with you. The rising cost of oil is affecting our wallets. Gas prices are up. Food prices are up. We’re all feeling the crunch (some more than others). Before you complain, however, let me ask you a question. What kind of phone do you have? Is it one of those free phones are did you pay $100/$200 or more for it? You go out to eat often? Do you bring lunch to work every day or do you go out? Do your kids have phones? Do you or them have a game system? Are you seeing my point?

We spend LOTS of money on non-necessities. I do it too. I love that stuff. I’ve got a Wii and plan on buying Mario Kart once I’m done with finals (I’m getting my MBA). I plan on buying an iPhone in the next year or so. In other words, I buy things I don’t need because I can afford it. But for some reason, people think we need these things. Almost as if you can’t be accepted in the modern world if you don’t own a fancy phone or an iPod. If you’re having trouble making ends meet, and you have an iPhone, then you’re an idiot. Of course, I’m generalizing, but I believe my point is clear.

So prices went up. Okay, that happens. It’s called inflation. Gas will eventually…….maybe not for a while…..but eventually stabilize. So deal with it. Stop going out to eat twice a week. Start brown-bagging your lunch. Life isn’t going to get any cheaper, so unless you have a plan to make a lot more money fairly soon, start living within your means.

This post is not meant for businesses who complain about gas. For businesses, it’s a whole different ballgame. Let’s hope that an alternative energy resource is not decades away.