Facebook Will Be in ebaY’s shoes in Three Years

The recent backlash over the latest ebaY’s feedback changes is just the latest problem with the auction company. The fact is that ebaY isn’t exciting anymore. The newness of auctions is gone. I can, many times, get cheaper prices from Amazon for a new product than the price of a used product on ebaY. It’s still useful, but not something that I would use often. I think it boils down to a lack of innovation on ebaY’s part. Without innovation, there isn’t growth.

Today, I see a blog post by Michael Arrington talking about how Facebook is shunning the Android platform because of the bad blood between Facebook and Google. This situation, amongst many others, makes me think that Facebook is going to be the next ebaY. By that I mean, Facebook will continue to grow until it reaches maximum capacity within its own market. But I don’t see the seeds of innovation wihtin Facebook to continue that growth into new markets such as Google has done. In other words, Facebook is a one-note company, and once the excitement is over, that growth will stagger. People will still use it. People still use ebaY. But without constant innovation, that growth will disappear. I’m calling it now. I’d give it 3 years. Facebook will have major growth problems.

The Web 2.0 Civil War

I’ve been noticing a lot of battles amongst Web 2.0 giants lately. Let’s just take a look at a few of them:

• Microsoft’s battle to buy Yahoo (now it’s more like Yahoo’s battle to be bought by Microsoft)
• eBay’s battle with Craigslist
• Michael Arrington’s battle with Wired
• and more recently, Google’s battle with Facebook

What I find most interesting about these battles is that, only recently, are we seeing the dark side of business with some Web 2.0 darlings. eBay and Craigslist! They’re such good companies that have helped consumers communicate and get better prices for their goods. Why are they fighting? Well, it’s because eBay bought 25% of Craigslist and then launched a competing service. What about Michael Arrington and Wired? Well, Techcrunch is going to be syndicated at the Wall Street Journal website and Wired is pissed about it.

What is comes down to is that none of these companies (even Craigslist) is about anything other than money. Each company has its own agenda and it all comes down to dollars and cents. Find me one successful web 2.0 company that seems to be altruistic in its ways and I’ll show you how all they’re doing is focusing on the $$$. You have to love capitalism.