Business Week and Michael Arrington are Wrong

Business Week and Michael Arrington have both predicted that any company competing in the smart phone market is in a lot of trouble this coming year. With the latest version of the iPhone coming out in July, both BW and Arrington think that Apple will dominate the space like they dominate the MP3 player industry with the iPod. I expect this from Business Week, whose analysis of the situation is based on Apple’s previous ability to come out with a revolutionary device and dominate the market. But I expect more foresight from Michael Arrington.

In the short term, yes, Apple will sell lots of iPhones. And yes, I will (eventually) be one of those buyers. But both BW and Arrington are missing the bigger picture. Apple’ s significant  achievement with the iPhone is the standards of services that users will expect from their smart phones. People want to organize their voicemail the way they see fit. People want to be able to install applications that others create for free. People want an easy way to see the web the way it was meant to be seen. These are all standards that other companies will adopt. With Google Android’s entrance into the marketplace, we’re going to see a lot of competitors to the iPhone in the next few years. All of which will provide those same high level of standards.

So let’s look 5 years down the line. Here are the potential options for businesses thinking about implementing a new smart phone service for all their employees:

Option A: Apple iPhone
Pros: It’s SO cool. The UI is gorgeous! I’ll be the cool one on the block. Web pages look great and the lack of keyboard is only annoying if I email a lot.

Cons: No QWERTY keyboard. It’s not focused solely on business.

Option B: RIM Blackberry
Pros: Device made just for business. Possibly cheaper than iPhone. Already have existing relationship with company. It’s got a QWERTY keyboard!

Cons: Not as cool as the iPhone. Web pages are viewed in mobile format.

Option C: Handset device with Google Android installed
Pros: Open system that allows companies to install company-related apps easily. Has many options for handsets depending on the user’s preference. Users can easily view web pages. Because of the many handset options, probably cheaper than the iPhone and Blackberry.

Cons: Handset and OS is coming from different companies. Not sure about others, but there will be a bunch.

With all these options, I think most businesses will go with B or C. The iPhone will be huge with consumers but Apple is going to have A LOT of competition in the business sector.